Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
